The next four years of the new American presidency and administration look to be a wild ride, not only for their own country but for the rest of the world.
With the longest international border shared between two countries in the world at nearly 9,000 kilometres and access to invaluable resources such as water, lumber and oil and gas, Canada will be on the frontlines.
The two countries have been long tied to one another and despite Canada’s historical ties with the United Kingdom and continuing to be part of the British Commonwealth of Nations, Canada will always ebb and flow with American policy.
President Donald Trump was inaugurated Monday (Jan. 20) and put a pause on previously declared incoming tariffs on both Canada and Mexico.
However, Trump has always been his own wildcard, shifting priorities much like the wind, but economic and nationalistic threats seem to hold his attention far longer than others on his radar.
In his first term, the North American Free Trade Agreement was ripped up in favour of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, though most of the provisions remained the same.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was signed, but Trump ultimately pulled the US out during his first week in office. He leveraged tariffs against China and several other countries, focusing on solar panels, steel and aluminum, that led to a trade war.
Of course, when you impose tariffs on other countries, it’s best to expect them back as other nations – including Canada – pushed back.
If Trump were to do the same this term, which he said could happen as soon as Feb. 1 and be 25 per cent on Canadian trade goods – retaliation is likely to follow.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, nine of 10 premiers and three territorial leaders ensured if tariffs were tossed on Canadian goods, they would likely do the same to the US.
The lone premier to hold out was Alberta’s Danielle Smith, who went rogue and broke ranks, briefly meeting with Trump and Kevin O’Leary as well as planning to attend the inauguration before it was moved indoors and space became more limited.
Smith, naturally, is looking out for Alberta’s oil and gas interests, which could be devastated by potential tariffs.
Canadian oil exports equate to about four million barrels of crude a day to the US and serve as America’s largest provider of natural gas. Canadian oil, gas and electricity exports were worth about US $125 billion in 2023.
Tariffs, however, are traditionally difficult to remove once in place. It’s not something you can put in place on a Monday and remove on a Wednesday. Many of the tariffs Trump put in place during his first term remained under former President Joe Biden, despite the two having many philosophical views on policy.
In the leadup to the inauguration, Trump threatened to make Canada its 51st state. It was likely the greatest form of aggression from the United States since the War of 1812, when Canada was still known as British North America and under direct rule of the King of England.
Though there are likely some who would prefer to join the United States – we all know American Netflix has better options – the majority would likely prefer to stay a sovereign state outside of America’s jurisdiction.
It’s even more true as Trump threatens to remove many environmental regulations that led him to say “we will drill, baby, drill” and to potentially declare a national energy emergency, end electric vehicle mandates and further promote fossil fuels.
The resignation of Trudeau has left Canada in a precarious and weakened state in the coming months as he serves as a lame duck Prime Minister before the Liberal party selects a new leader.
Of course, a federal election will take place in the coming months, likely resulting in a Conservative-led government. It means the country could have three different leaders in the span of less than the first 10 months of the new Trump administration.
Regardless of what the future holds, the coming years will likely be chaotic at the best of times for Canadian and American relations.
