New work to determine fate of icefields

The future of the country’s water supply will become more clear thanks to new research at the Columbia Icefields, potentially shattering the national myth of hyper abundance that fuels current usage rates, according to top scientists in the industry.

Dr. Mike Demuth, head of the Glaciology Section of the Geological Survey of Canada and a team of glaciologists have begun ‘groundbreaking’ research at the Columbia Icefields that will determine the exact volume of existing glaciers in the Columbia Icefields. The new data is expected to roll out in the next year, and could influence water usage for generations to come.

Thus far, scientists have based their glacier study on physics-based models, studying smaller glaciers and extrapolating data outward. According to Demuth and other leading water researchers, stronger data is needed to inform policy decisions about future water usage in western Canada. 

“This will help us understand the topography and volume of ice in the Columbia Icefield. From that can derive public policy decisions about water usage,” said Bob Sandford, director of the Western Watersheds Climate Research Collaborative.

“As we consider the water sources in the higher elevations, there’s a need to establish a more comprehensive monitoring system,” Demuth said.

In order to determine the icefield’s volume, the team will use a technique called LiDAR, which combines light detection and RADAR. Infra-red pulses emitted by a laser are shot from an aircraft at the icefields, which bounce back to a detector. By combining the readings, the first accurate measurement of the Columbia Icefields should be created. Research began in April with the use of planes and skiers.

“The project uses ground-penetrating radar. It sends radio waves into the ice, which bounces off the bottom of the ice back to the plane. We record the time of flight, we know the speed of the radar and we get a measurement,” Demuth said. 

Currently, global glacier research is skewed toward accessible, smaller glaciers. The massive icefields that feed these glaciers are still a mystery.

“Most of the study thus far has focuses on the outlying glaciers. We know virtually nothing about the plateau glacier that’s feeding it,” Demuth said. “Data is biased to smaller glaciers. Smaller glaciers melt quicker, like an individual ice cube, as opposed to ice cubes in a tray, which melt slowly. We’re now able to look at larger systems and get a less biased view.”

The Columbia Icefields is the hydrological apex of Western Canada, and supplies water to the Atlantic, Artic and Pacific oceans. 

 By creating an accurate picture of the Icefield volume, scientists hope to gain a better understanding about their contributions to water resources, and begin modelling out potential changes. Accurate estimations are needed to test the accuracy of the current data, said Demuth.

Sandford calls the work the most important that has occurred in the mountain parks history.

“We have lost a quarter of our glacier area in a very short period of time. This work is to figure out what the implications actually are in terms of western water supply,” Sandford said. 

Demuth says similar technology is currently being implemented around the globe. About 90 per cent of the world’s glaciers are shrinking, and many areas are losing their glaciers completely. For example, Glacier National Park in the United States lost 10 per cent of its glaciers in 2007, and has lost more than 100 of the 150 glaciers that were found in the park a century ago.

Glaciers are rapidly disappearing around the globe at an increased rate.

Between 1975 and 1998, glacier cover in the North Saskatchewan River Basin decreased by about 22 per cent. The South Saskatchewan river basin glacier cover decreased by 36 per cent.

Much of the understanding about glaciers in the Canadian Rockies comes from work by glaciologist Dr. Shawn Marshall and his work on the Peyto Glacier.

“We’re using the Peyto Glacier for a surrogate to understand what other glaciers are doing,” Sandford said.

Sandford said its important to understand the projections are based on what has occurred over the past 40 years – not projections which include global warming.

Based on that, he said many glaciers in the Rocky Mountains will be gone within the next 100 years. Work by glaciologist Gary Marshall indicates the Athabasca glacier will no longer provide water in 83 years. The Bow Glacier only has 53 years left. However Sandford contends these projections are only based on physics models, and not strong enough to base policy upon. That’s why the new work will provide a stronger data set which will inform the public. 

Demuth said scientists are seeing warming at higher elevations, as there is now widespread winter melt at 3,000 metres on the icefield.

“There is a lot of warming going on at higher elevations. This is reducing the firn pack that is nourishing the glacier,” Demuth said.

Much of the great melt has already occurred, Sandford said, as warming reduced glaciers substatially in the 70s, 80s and 90s. How this will affect ecosystems downstream is also something the new research will hope to determine.

“It will affect mountain snowpack and cover and that will affect our water supply,” Sandford said.

Loss of ice and reduced water availability models show drastic changes to the mountain environment. Sandford says based on current estimates drawn from data collected over the past 40 years, glaciers will be replaced by grassland by 2100.

“If grassland moves to that altitude, you’re seeing desertification on the Northern Planes,” Sandford said.

Due to the increase in population size in the eastern slopes of the Rockies, understanding water supply is paramount, Sandford said. The glaciers provide a portion of water to about three million people.

Demuth characterizes the icefields and glaciers as a bank account that is growing and shrinking over the short term.

“In the long term, we’re taking out the principle, and reducing our resistance to drought... There’s a short term increase from year to year, but there’s a long term decrease.”

Parks Canada is also partnering with the program and will revamp the interpretative centre at the Columbia Icefields.

According to Bill Fisher, Director General of Western and Northern Canada for Parks Canada, the research provides a new opportunity to tell the story of water.

“We’ve got two million people travelling here every year and we want to provide the opportunity to visitors to feel what it’s like to be on a glacier,” Fisher said.

He also said there is a chance the centre could offer citizen scientist opportunities, providing realtime data about the Columbia Icefield, and other glaciers around the world.

By understanding how important the icefields are to the nation’s water supply, he believes Canadians will appreciate how important Jasper National Park is to their everyday lives.

He also said the data collected will inform future policy decisions.

While the majority of scientists believe greenhouse gas emissions contribute to global warming, Fisher said there is still capacity to grow at the Icefields Parkway. Currently, two million visitors come to Jasper National Park a year, and Fisher believes there is room for more at the Icefield interpretive centre.

Standing on the Saskatchewan glacier, Demuth also said the changes also affect recreational activities.

“My first trip here was 30 years ago. Now, it’s a lot harder to get on the glacier. Approaches are longer and there are some significant hazards. The approach will become more difficult than the climb.”

Information from the new research will roll out over the next five years of the project.